Peru’s Pedro Pablo Kuczynski leads Fujimori in poll for runoff

By April 18, 2016

A new poll shows presidential candidate Pedro Pablo Kuczynski with a four-point lead over Keiko Fujimori seven weeks before Peru’s runoff vote.

The Ipsos poll for America TV showed 44% of respondents would vote for Kuczynski compared to 40% for Fujimori. Kuczynksi’s lead is greater than the 2.3% margin of error. However 10% of respondents would abstain or were undecided and 6% declined to say which candidate they would vote for.

“What this poll tells us is that our social policy proposal is good, our economic proposal is good,” Kuczynski told Cuarto Poder. “But we still have to better communicate our proposal on crime.”

The 77-year-old investor favorite with experience in the World Bank and two governments’ Cabinets has gone from being widely dismissed by the media to the favorite to head Peru’s government. A poll in February had Kuczynski as low as fourth in the race behind Julio Guzman and Cesar Acuña. Two weeks later, Kuczynski fired his campaign manager and reformulated his message.

The poll confirmed and expanded the lead Kuczynski had in an Ipsos poll in March which showed him beating Fujimori in a hypothetical runoff by one point.

“We accept [this poll] with prudence and calm,” Popular Strength spokesman Pedro Spadaro told Andina. “This is just beginning, it is a new campaign. There is 35% on both sides which is sure about their vote. We hope to convince those who are not convinced to vote for Keiko that our plan for government is better.”

Ipsos pollster Alfredo Torres told El Comercio that the strong anti-Fujimori movement will back Kuczynski.

“[Kuczynski] is a person who does not have a lot of baggage,” Torres said. “The thing with Keiko is that she has a strong anti-vote. But it is possible that she gets votes going around the country in less politicized areas. It cannot be ruled out that she might win.”

The Ipsos poll also gauged the attitudes of undecided voters toward both candidates. While 32% said they definitely would not vote for Kuczynski, 42% said the same about Fujimori. And while 19% said they could vote for Kuczynski, only 11% said they could vote for Fujimori.

Peru will hold its runoff election on June 5.


Encuesta Ipsos: PPK 44% y Keiko 40% para segunda vuelta (El Comercio)

Spadaro: Encuesta a una semana de primera vuelta es prematura (El Comercio)

Fujimorismo toma con prudencia y tranquilidad última encuesta, según Spadaro (Andina)